UK Gambling Commission Reports VPN Use Is Obscuring Data on Illegal Gambling

(AsiaGameHub) –   The UK Gambling Commission has revised its perspective on illegal online gambling activity, though the core takeaway remains one of caution. New data covering up to February 2026 reveals inconsistent traffic trends instead of a sustained increase, while more widespread VPN use is reducing the reliability of market measurement.

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Good to Know

• The UK dataset spans a 21-month period ending in February 2026.
• The regulator observed fluctuations in illegal gambling traffic rather than a distinct long-term upward trend.
• VPN usage increased following the implementation of the Online Safety Act in July 2025, and is now further obscuring the accuracy of the data.

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Surge in VPN Use Creates Fresh Challenges for UK Illegal Gambling Data Tracking

A surge in VPN usage now lies at the heart of the illegal gambling debate in the UK. Per the Gambling Commission, these anonymization tools make it harder to gauge how many consumers are accessing unlicensed gambling sites and the volume of activity taking place outside the regulated market.

This finding informed the latest update released on Tuesday. The regulator used estimated minutes spent on illegal gambling sites as a proxy for consumer engagement across the 21-month dataset concluding in February 2026. Results showed sharp swings in activity, with no consistent seasonal pattern and no permanent rise. A spike seen in autumn 2024 did not reappear a year later, leading the regulator to classify the trend as volatile rather than evidence of a structural expansion of the market.

As far back as November 2025, the Commission already stated that it could not reliably estimate spending through unlicensed operators. It also noted that three common methods—based on time, channelization, and surveys—were not fit for purpose. Six months later, that uncertainty has not gone away. The overall picture is slightly broader now, but remains far from settled.

July 2025 added another layer of complexity. After the Online Safety Act was rolled out, VPN use rose before stabilizing at roughly 40% above pre-July levels, according to data from Ofcom and Similarweb cited by the Commission. A 30% uplift had already been factored in to account for hidden traffic, but newer evidence suggests even more illegal gambling activity may now be concealed behind VPN masking. This forced the regulator to add two VPN usage scenarios to its trend analysis, widening confidence intervals from mid-2025 onward.

In other words, it is easier to discuss trend direction than it is to determine market size. Web traffic estimates can hint at shifts in activity, but they do not capture every pathway to illegal gambling, including apps and direct connections. For enforcement teams, this creates a tangible problem. Payment blocking, domain takedowns, and collaboration with banks and ad platforms all depend on knowing where activity is occurring and whether enforcement efforts are working.

Tim Livesley, head of the UKGC Data Innovation Hub, said:

“We are continuing to work on refining our methodology, and are seeking input from other international regulators and licensed operators to help validate and improve existing data sources, as well as identify additional datasets that can enhance our understanding of the illegal gambling market.”

“The Commission continues to prioritize tackling illegal gambling, and we will also share further updates on how we are expanding our disruption and enforcement efforts.”

A March panel at the Spring Evidence Conference in Birmingham helped frame this work. Industry representatives, HMRC, and the Dutch gambling regulator gathered there to discuss illegal gambling enforcement and persistent data weaknesses. The UK is not alone in facing this issue, either. Regulators across multiple markets are encountering the same challenge, as privacy tools make detection, tracking, and payment disruption more difficult.